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Physics > Physics and Society

arXiv:1612.03085 (physics)
[Submitted on 5 Dec 2016]

Title:An Epidemiological Mechanistic Model of Box Office Dynamics

Authors:Naghmeh Momeni, Amir Tohidi Kalorazi, Michael Rabbat, Babak Fotouhi
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Abstract:In this paper we propose a mechanistic model that links micro social interactions to macro observables in the case of diffusion of film-going decisions. We devise a generalized epidemic model to capture the temporal evolution of box office revenues. The model adds social influence and memory effects to conventional epidemic models. Fitting the model to a temporal data set containing domestic weekly revenue of the 5000 top US-grossing films of all time, we find that a two-parameter model can capture a remarkable portion of the observed variance in the data. Using the distribution of the estimated parameters for different genres, we then present a predictive model which provides reasonable a-priori estimates of future sale as a function of time.
Subjects: Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:1612.03085 [physics.soc-ph]
  (or arXiv:1612.03085v1 [physics.soc-ph] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1612.03085

Submission history

From: Babak Fotouhi [view email]
[v1] Mon, 5 Dec 2016 14:51:19 UTC (3,458 KB)
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