Title:Optimal Control of Aquatic Diseases: A Case Study of Yemen's Cholera Outbreak

Abstract:We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of some strains of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, responsible for the cholera disease in humans. We prove that, when the basic reproduction number is equal to one, a transcritical bifurcation occurs for which the endemic equilibrium emanates from the disease-free point. A control function is introduced into the model, representing the distribution of chlorine water tablets for water purification. An optimal control problem is then proposed and analyzed, where the goal is to determine the fraction of susceptible individuals who should have access to chlorine water tablets in order to minimize the total number of new infections plus the total cost associated with the distribution of chlorine water tablets, over the considered period of time. Finally, we consider real data of the cholera outbreak in Yemen, from 27 April 2017 to 15 April 2018, choosing the values of the parameters of the uncontrolled model that fit the real data. Using our optimal control results, we show, numerically, that the distribution of chlorine water tablets could have stopped, in a fast way, the worst cholera outbreak that ever occurred in human history. Due to the critical situation of Yemen, we also simulate the case where only a small percentage of susceptible individuals has access to chlorine water tablets and obtain an optimal control solution that decreases, substantially, the maximum number of infective individuals attained at the outbreak.