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arXiv:2006.06530 (physics)
COVID-19 e-print

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[Submitted on 8 Jun 2020 (v1), last revised 16 Jun 2020 (this version, v2)]

Title:Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data

Authors:Rodrigo Veiga, Rodrigo Murta, Renato Vicente
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Abstract:We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with plateau scenarios taken from locations that have reached this stage. Finally, the logistic curve found is corrected by the subnotification factor and sampled to project the future demand for ICU beds.
Comments: 6 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables. Code available at this https URL
Subjects: Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); Machine Learning (stat.ML)
Cite as: arXiv:2006.06530 [physics.soc-ph]
  (or arXiv:2006.06530v2 [physics.soc-ph] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2006.06530

Submission history

From: Rodrigo Veiga [view email]
[v1] Mon, 8 Jun 2020 16:39:20 UTC (95 KB)
[v2] Tue, 16 Jun 2020 00:22:41 UTC (95 KB)
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