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Quantitative Biology > Populations and Evolution

arXiv:2007.14804 (q-bio)
COVID-19 e-print

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[Submitted on 28 Jul 2020]

Title:The SHIR Model: Realistic Fits to COVID-19 Case Numbers

Authors:T. Barnes
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Abstract:We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This "SHIR" model is applied to COVID-19 data, and shows promise as a simple, tractable formalism with few parameters that can be used to model pandemic case numbers. As an example we show that the average time dependence of new COVID-19 cases per day from 15 Central and Western European countries is in good agreement with the analytic, parameter-free prediction of the model
Comments: Latex, 13 pp., 13 figs. (eps)
Subjects: Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:2007.14804 [q-bio.PE]
  (or arXiv:2007.14804v1 [q-bio.PE] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2007.14804

Submission history

From: Ted Barnes [view email]
[v1] Tue, 28 Jul 2020 00:47:39 UTC (155 KB)
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