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Economics > Econometrics

arXiv:2101.10359 (econ)
[Submitted on 25 Jan 2021 (v1), last revised 2 Jan 2022 (this version, v3)]

Title:A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting

Authors:Francis X. Diebold, Maximilian Gobel
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Abstract:We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity.
Subjects: Econometrics (econ.EM); Applications (stat.AP)
Cite as: arXiv:2101.10359 [econ.EM]
  (or arXiv:2101.10359v3 [econ.EM] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2101.10359

Submission history

From: Francis Diebold [view email]
[v1] Mon, 25 Jan 2021 19:11:24 UTC (533 KB)
[v2] Thu, 11 Feb 2021 12:50:49 UTC (703 KB)
[v3] Sun, 2 Jan 2022 22:35:11 UTC (886 KB)
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