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Computer Science > Software Engineering

arXiv:2411.11202 (cs)
[Submitted on 17 Nov 2024]

Title:Forecasting the risk of software choices: A model to foretell security vulnerabilities from library dependencies and source code evolution

Authors:Carlos E. Budde, Ranindya Paramitha, Fabio Massacci
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Abstract:Software security mainly studies vulnerability detection: is my code vulnerable today? This hinders risk estimation, so new approaches are emerging to forecast the occurrence of future vulnerabilities. While useful, these approaches are coarse-grained and hard to employ for project-specific technical decisions. We introduce a model capable of vulnerability forecasting at library level. Formalising source-code evolution in time together with library dependency, our model can estimate the probability that a software project faces a CVE disclosure in a future time window. Our approach is white-box and lightweight, which we demonstrate via experiments involving 1255 CVEs and 768 Java libraries, made public as an open-source artifact. Besides probabilities estimation, e.g. to plan software updates, this formal model can be used to detect security-sensitive points in a project, or measure the health of a development ecosystem.
Subjects: Software Engineering (cs.SE); Cryptography and Security (cs.CR); Emerging Technologies (cs.ET)
ACM classes: D.2.8; K.6.3; G.3
Cite as: arXiv:2411.11202 [cs.SE]
  (or arXiv:2411.11202v1 [cs.SE] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.11202

Submission history

From: Carlos E. Budde [view email]
[v1] Sun, 17 Nov 2024 23:36:27 UTC (3,230 KB)
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